Global trade hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, expanding 3.7% ($1.2 trillion), according to the latest Global Trade Update by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which warns that while trade remains strong, uncertainty looms in 2025.
Services drove growth, rising 9% for the year and adding $700 billion – nearly 60% of the total growth. Trade in goods grew 2%, contributing $500 billion.
Most regions saw positive growth, except for Europe and Central Asia. Growth varied by industry – agri-food, communication technology and transport saw gains, while energy, apparel and extractives slowed due to weaker demand and policy shifts.
Source: UNCTADstat; UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculations based on national statistics.
Note: Quarterly growth is the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted values. The annual growth is calculated using a trade-weighted moving average over the past four quarters. Figures for Q4 2024 are estimates. Q1 2025 is a nowcast as of 5 March 2025.
However, momentum slowed in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, trade in goods grew by less than 0.5%, and services edged up just 1%.
Trade inflation neared zero as prices for traded goods stabilized in the last quarter of 2024. The lingering effects of high post-pandemic inflation appear to have run their course.
Source: UNCTADstat; UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculations based on national statistics.
Note: Quarterly growth is the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted values. The annual growth is calculated using a trade-weighted moving average over the past four quarters. Figures for Q4 2024 are estimates. Q1 2025 is a nowcast as of 5 March 2025.
Developing economies led global growth
In 2024, developing economies outpaced developed nations, with imports and exports rising 4% for the year and 2% in the fourth quarter, driven mainly by East and South Asia. South-South trade expanded 5% annually and 4% in the last quarter.
Chain and India outperformed global trade averages. In contrast, trade in the Russian Federation, South Africa, and Brazil remained sluggish for most of the year, with some improvement in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, developed economies’ trade stagnated, with imports and exports flat for the year and down 2% in the last quarter.
Merchandise trade imbalances widened
Source: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates based on national statistics.
In 2024, global trade imbalances returned to 2022 levels.
The US trade deficit with China reached -$355 billion, widening by $14 billion in the fourth quarter, while its deficit with the European Union (EU) increased by $12 billion to -$241 billion.
Meanwhile, China’s strong exports pushed its trade surplus to the highest level since 2022. The EU reversed previous deficits and posted a trade surplus for the year, helped by high energy prices.
Trade growth holds at outset of 2025, but uncertainty looms
Trade has remained stable in early 2025, but mounting geoeconomic tensions, protectionist policies and trade disputes signal likely disruptions ahead.
Falling shipping indexes signal weaker demand for manufactured goods, inputs and commodities as businesses adjust to increasing uncertainty.
The challenge in 2025 is to prevent global fragmentation – where nations form isolated trade blocs – while managing policy shifts without undermining long-term growth.
