Global shipping faced heightened security risks in the third quarter of 2026, with increased attacks on merchant vessels across the Middle East and Black Sea, a resurgence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden, and the growing use of false flags and dark-fleet tactics, according to the latest analysis by Windward.
The Windward Q3 2026 Maritime Risk Report identifies a sharp deterioration in the maritime security environment, with Iran, Russia, Ukraine and the United States all carrying out strikes affecting commercial shipping during the quarter.
Hormuz attacks double as vessels turn to dark convoys
The Strait of Hormuz emerged as one of the most acute areas of risk. Windward recorded 45 attacks on ships in the Middle East Gulf between July and September, compared with 25 in Q2 and 22 during February and March. The nature of the attacks also changed. Tankers accounted for 87% of vessels targeted, up from 28% in Q2, while 93% of attacks occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. Almost half of the vessels attacked belonged to national fleets of Gulf energy companies. Despite the attacks, shipping through the strait gradually recovered. UKMTO-recorded traffic increased from about 16 transits per day in the second half of July to around 31 in the final week of September, although this remained well below the pre-war average of 138. Much of the recovery came from U.S.-facilitated southern-corridor convoys operating with AIS switched off.
Windward estimates that dark convoy passages accounted for 47% of Hormuz traffic in August and 52% in September.
Oil spills raise concerns over Gulf desalination
The increase in attacks also heightened the environmental risk to the Gulf. Windward recorded at least 12 conflict-related oil-spill incidents during Q3, compared with nine in Q2. The largest involved the VLCC Caroline Bezengi, whose oil slick expanded to about 400 km² according to Omani authorities, while independent estimates put the affected area at up to 2,000 km². The spills pose a particular threat to the Gulf’s water supply. All six Gulf Cooperation Council states rely heavily on desalination, with 56 plants supplying more than 90% of the region’s desalinated water. Two Q3 oil slicks, near Musandam and Sharjah, passed within tens of kilometres of operating desalination facilities. No plant intake was confirmed to have been contaminated.
Bab el-Mandeb traffic falls after Houthi blockade threat
Shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb also declined after the Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping on 20 July. Total traffic fell by 9.9% quarter-on-quarter to 4,554 transits, while tanker movements dropped 26.4%, from 1,918 in Q2 to 1,411.
Before the blockade announcement, the strait averaged 44.1 transits per day; afterwards, the figure fell to 33.7. Saudi-flagged vessels almost entirely disappeared from the route, while some carriers targeted by the Houthis continued operating but increasingly switched off AIS. Windward also observed vessels broadcasting messages such as “Chinese owner” or “armed guards onboard” in their AIS destination fields to signal that they were not linked to the conflict.
Piracy returns to the Gulf of Aden
The Somali Basin and Gulf of Aden recorded five hijacking attempts during Q3, up from two in Q2 and roughly five times the level seen during the same quarters of 2024 and 2025. All five incidents occurred off Somalia or in the Gulf of Aden. Two vessels successfully repelled attacks, while three were hijacked.
Two were subsequently released, leaving one vessel still in pirate hands at the time of Windward’s assessment. The resurgence points to a pirate threat operating at a higher tempo within a relatively concentrated area, despite the continued presence of international naval forces.
Black Sea attacks surge
The Russia-Ukraine maritime war also expanded significantly. Windward identified about 86 commercial ships attacked in the Black Sea during Q3, compared with 23 during the first half of 2026. Both sides widened their targeting. Ukraine moved from targeting specific shadow-fleet tankers to attacking vessels calling at Russian ports, while Russia concentrated strikes around Greater Odesa and Reni. Four seafarers were killed and two remained missing in attacks during the period.
The consequences for shipping were substantial. Greater Odesa cargo handling fell more than fifteenfold after 22 July, while Bosphorus traffic dropped from more than 200 vessel movements per day to fewer than 30.
False flags and the dark fleet continue to expand
The number of falsely flagged vessels listed by the International Maritime Organization reached 613 by the end of Q3, a 39% increase since the start of the year. Together, the vessels represent 24.8 million gross tonnes. Tankers accounted for 95% of the tonnage, with crude tankers alone representing 77%. Most of the vessels are older ships, with 569 of the 613 built before 2010. At the same time, Russia became the largest flag within Windward’s dark-fleet tracking. The company identified 223 Russia-flagged tankers in the dark fleet, including 84 that changed flag during Q3 more than four times the Q2 figure.
The shift follows increased enforcement against stateless and falsely flagged tankers. Windward said no falsely flagged tanker had loaded Russian cargo since mid-June, while Russia increasingly moved sanctioned tankers onto its own registry.
GPS interference reaches more ships
GPS jamming remained widespread, with an average of 5,131 incidents per day during Q3, broadly unchanged from Q2. However, the number of distinct vessels affected rose 11.7% to 124,235. The Middle East Gulf experienced significant spikes during U.S. strikes on Iran, with 1 September recording 1,699 regional jamming incidents and 6,838 globally the highest daily figure of the quarter. By contrast, GPS interference in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb declined sharply, falling 64% between July and September.
Taken together, Windward’s findings point to a maritime operating environment increasingly shaped by conflict, sanctions, deceptive shipping practices, navigation interference and fragmented security arrangements. For commercial operators, the quarter underscored how quickly traditional risk assumptions can change and how increasingly vessels are relying on rerouting, AIS-dark operations, naval escorts and other measures to maintain access to critical shipping lanes.
Source: Safety4sea
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