With the ClarkSea Index averaging $24,964/day (+6% y-o-y, +30% ten-year trend), a strong earnings environment persisted across 2024 as the shipping industry managed disruption and complexities across the world’s supply chains. And despite an easing of rates and S&P prices in some markets in Q4, underlying fleet renewal helped drive the most active newbuild market since 2007.
Sectors: Dry Surprise
Across the sectors, the container market recorded its strongest conditions outside of the Covid-19 period, with freight rates up 149% and charter rates up 48%. Red Sea re-routing has been the biggest single driver (increasing demand +12%, ~700 vessels sailing round the Cape) but stronger volumes (+5%), an earlier “peak” season and congestion helped. The bulk carrier market also “surprised” on the upside, particularly Capes (+76% y-o-y $21,862/day). Chinese iron ore and coal import levels were supportive, although ClarkSea expects volume growth to be more muted in 2025.
Tanker rates softened slightly y-o-y, with Q4 not as strong as expected: weak global oil demand has been a factor (seaborne oil trade volumes were flat at 3.1bn tons). But tanker earnings for the year still sat 46% above the10 year trend and ton miles sit 11% above 2022 levels. The LNG spot market weakened as the year progressed while VLGC rates softened but from the “heroic” levels of 2023. ClarkSea’s offshore oil and gas index increased 20% y-o-y but softer sentiment crept in after the summer, particularly for drilling rigs. Day rates for “wind” rose 30%.
The Cruise sector has seen firm growth (a record 35m passengers in 2024) while the Car Carrier market began to ease back from its record highs.
Trade: Volume & Distance
Global seaborne trade volumes grew by a “solid” 2.4% to reach 12.6bn tons (2025(f): 12.8bn tons) but the “headline” data point was +6.2% ton miles (largest growth in shipping demand for 15 years). Disruption has been key (Red-Sea re-routing, re-distribution of Russian oil flows), although there are also underlying increases in Atlantic to Pacific commodity flows. For the moment, 2025 index projections assume Red Sea disruption and Russian sanctions continue. Panama Canal restrictions “normalized” in the year. With heightened geo-political and economic uncertainty (e.g. tariffs, see US Administration Impact Assessment) ClarkSea will be monitoring ton-mile forecasts closely.
Supply: Fleet Renewal
The world fleet grew by only 3.4% to 2.4bn dwt (1.7bn GT), but with wide variations (tanker fleet +0.8%, container fleet +10.1%). Shipyard output increased by 13% (CGT, Chinese market share 53% with capacity expanding) and order volumes were up 34% (highest since 2007, see Shipbuilding Review). 49% of newbuild tonnage ordered was alternative fueled with LNG dominating. ClarkSea’s newbuild price index increased 6%, while S&P prices increased across the year but values and volumes softened in Q4 from their elevated levels. Demolition remained low (-20%). The value of the world fleet and orderbook has reached $2.0 trillion (2020: $1.2 trillion). Geo-politics continue to impact: the estimate of the “parallel” fleet stabilized at ~13% of the tanker fleet and ~328 vessels were added to sanction lists in 2024: compliance teams are gearing up for another busy year.
Managing Disruption
As 2025 begins, the market tone for now seems to be more cautious in some segments. But key themes from recent years – such as managing disruption amid geopolitical uncertainties remain relevant.
