DP World has secured renewed confidence in its financial position after Moody’s reaffirmed the company’s Baa2 long-term issuer rating while keeping its outlook stable. The ratings agency also upheld the (P)Baa2 ratings for the group’s senior unsecured medium-term note (MTN) programmes and the Baa2 ratings on backed senior unsecured notes issued by DP World and DP World Crescent Limited, reinforcing the company’s solid credit standing.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Baa2 issuer rating reflects our expectation that DP World's business profile will be able to withstand operational disruptions at its UAE assets, notably Jebel Ali Port, supported by its strong geographic diversification, with operations outside the UAE accounting for around 77% and more than 60% of 2025 revenue and EBITDA, respectively. In addition, the company's robust liquidity position provides a meaningful buffer to absorb the impact of the conflict and meet upcoming debt maturities.
The signing of memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran promises a 60-day ceasefire extension and the free passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which are credit positive. However, it will likely take time to restore full maritime safety through the Strait, with negotiations on key contentious issues and a longer-term agreement still pending. We anticipate that a credible and durable de-escalation will take longer to materialize, delaying the return to pre-conflict trade flows and ample global energy supply, with credit conditions improving only gradually through the autumn.
Accordingly, UAE operations could continue facing trade disruptions over the coming months, with volumes gradually recovering towards 2025 levels by 2027. As a result, we assume that Jebel Ali Port's EBITDA will decline to around a quarter of 2025 levels in 2026 and recover to more than 70% in 2027.
In contrast, we forecast earnings outside UAE port operations to grow in line with economic activity across the regions in which DP World operates, supporting overall EBITDA in 2026. This growth combined with full year earnings contribution from recent acquisitions will partially offset the decline in earnings from the Jebel Ali port operations. We estimate the consolidated group EBITDA to decline to around $5.9 billion in 2026 from $6.6 billion in 2025, and recover to around $6.7 billion in 2027.
Despite the lower EBITDA estimate in 2026, we forecast that credit metrics will remain healthy. Retained cash flow to debt (RCF/debt) is expected to decline modestly to around 9% compared to 10% in 2025, supported by lower distributions to Jebel Ali minority shareholders and higher earnings from non-UAE operations, which will partly offset the decline in Jebel Ali earnings. We forecast RCF/debt to improve to around 11% in 2027, supported by growth in non-UAE operations and a recovery in volumes at Jebel Ali Port.
Cash interest coverage is expected to weaken to around 3.1x in 2026, primarily reflecting lower earnings, before recovering towards 3.5x in 2027.
The rating affirmation also reflects management's continued adherence to its stated financial policy of maintaining net leverage below 4.0x (on a pre-IFRS 16 basis), despite ongoing capital spending and non-organic growth. As of 2025, reported net leverage (excluding leases) remained stable at 3.4x, broadly in line with the prior year.
DP World's Baa2 issuer rating is supported by (1) the company's diversified global port operations in strategically located, fast-growing emerging markets under long-term concessions; (2) the operations of Jebel Ali Port and Free Zone in Dubai, the fourth-busiest container port globally outside China; (3) solid profitability across economic cycles and positive long-term growth prospects in international container traffic, supported by the company's focus on origin and destination (O&D) cargo, which is generally less sensitive to cyclical downturns than transshipment volumes; and (4) a prudent financial policy targeting net debt to EBITDA (before IFRS 16 leases) of below 4.0x.
The rating also reflects (1) the company's exposure to heightened geopolitical risks, which are negatively affecting earnings from its UAE operations; (2) increasing exposure to non-port-related businesses, which dilute overall profitability and support lower leverage tolerance compared with DP World's core port operations; and (3) a track record of elevated acquisition spending, which introduces integration risks and could, at times, result in leverage temporarily exceeding the company's stated financial policy targets.
LIQUIDITY
DP World's excellent liquidity position further supports the rating. The company's liquidity is underpinned by $4.6 billion of unrestricted cash as of 2025, around $1.6 billion available under various credit facilities including its $3.0 billion revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in June 2028 (of which further $1.1 billion was drawn in the first half of 2026), and approximately $7.7 billion of funds from operations (FFO) that we expect the company to generate through 2027. This liquidity is expected to comfortably cover the company's cash requirements over the same period, including the repayment of $3.4 billion of upcoming debt maturities, around $6.0 billion of capital expenditures, and about $1.5 billion of dividends through 2027. Further, the company secured additional funding in the form of term loan facilities maturing in three years with total commitment of $2.0 billion, of which we estimate around $1.0 billion has been drawn in the first half of 2026.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects DP World's strong liquidity position, which provides a solid buffer against trade disruptions at Jebel Ali Port. The outlook also incorporates the company's geographically diversified portfolio of well-located port assets under long-term concessions, as well as its flexible cost structure, which supports its ability to manage volatility in global trade. In addition, it reflects our expectation that DP World's credit metrics will remain broadly in line with the thresholds for the Baa2 rating.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The rating could be upgraded if the company continues to demonstrate a consistent track record of adherence to its financial policy target of reported net debt/ EBITDA (pre-IFRS leases) below 4.0x, while Moody's adjusted RCF/ debt sustainably exceeds 15% and cash interest coverage sustainably exceeds 4.5x on a sustained basis. These credit ratios assume that DP World will continue to derive the majority of its EBITDA and cash flow from port operations and that the company's non-port related activities demonstrate resilience through economic cycles.
Given DP World's sizeable operational exposure to Dubai, its rating position would also need to be considered in the context of the Government of Dubai's credit profile and the overall macroeconomic environment in Dubai.
The rating could be downgraded if the company does not adhere to its financial policy targets or if it undertakes higher-risk development projects or acquisitions that lead to credit metrics weakening for a sustained period of time, such that RCF/ debt trends below 8% and cash interest coverage is below 3.5x. The rating would also come under pressure if DP World's liquidity profile weakens.
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