"Following the start of attacks on Iran on 28 February, transits through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively stopped, severing Arabian Gulf ports from global container services. As a result, around 130 container ships, totalling about 1.5% of the global fleet’s capacity, are stranded in the gulf. The war has added uncertainty to an outlook that was already obscured by ever changing US tariffs,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Due to the lack of transits through the Strait of Hormuz, around 3% of global container volumes can no longer move, directly impacting approximately 5% of global ship demand. As many ships calling at Arabian Gulf ports also service ports in e.g. Pakistan and India, it is estimated that nearly 10% of the global fleet has been impacted by the war.
The war adds to the uncertainty already created by US trade policy. The Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that most of the import tariffs charged in 2025 and early 2026 were unlawful and fees collected must therefore be refunded. In response, President Trump introduced an across-the-board 15% tariff which is due to expire after 150 days unless extended by Congress.
As no one can predict when transits through the Strait of Hormuz will resume, we use two forecast scenarios. One assumes that the strait remains effectively closed indefinitely (SoH Closed) while the other assumes that a resumption of transits is imminent (SoH Open).
“With the exception of ships currently stuck in the Arabian Gulf, ship supply growth is mostly unimpacted by the lack of transits through the Strait of Hormuz whereas demand is expected to fall by 5% in 2026. However, we find it likely that the ships no longer serving Arabian Gulf ports will be made idle, laid up or used to cover contingencies rather than redeployed in other trade lanes. What appears as a substantial weakening of the global supply/demand balance might therefore not significantly impact other trade lanes,” says Rasmussen.
Beyond impacting Arabian Gulf trades, the war has also increased the perceived risk of transiting the Red Sea due to Iran’s links with the Houthis. Initial steps taken to revert to normal Suez Canal routings have been reversed and a full normalisation of routings have been further delayed.
Even if transits through the Strait of Hormuz resume shortly, significant outlook uncertainty will remain. Our ship demand forecast therefore spans a 2 pp range. We equally present a minimum and maximum ship supply growth forecast. The minimum ship supply growth estimate includes an expectation of average sailing speeds gradually falling towards the lows seen in 2023, but the maximum does not.
“Whether the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or not, we expect a slight weakening of the global supply/demand balance in 2026 and 2027. However, if transits do not resume, liner operators will face substantial extra costs due to higher oil prices while cargo volumes will be reduced,” says Rasmussen.
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