Ships sailing through the Black, Red and Baltic seas will have the greatest threats from damage by state-backed agencies and offer potential for salvage and wreck removal in 2026
Russia’s continued invasion and conflict with Ukraine, and anger from the armed Houthi rebels will drive risks to shipping in three maritime areas in 2026.
The Black Sea will be the top spot for attacks on shipping from government forces over the next 12 months, as Ukraine and Russia intensify their maritime and terminal attacks.
Vessel incidents are also expected in the Baltic area as a result of Europe’s tightening stance and Russian retaliation, according to security experts that advise insurance companies.
A resurgence in attacks on shipping is also expected by Houthi forces in 2026, either in response to further military action in Gaza or extortion to pile pressure on Saudi Arabia for funds.
Herminius senior advisor Dominick Donald predicts these three areas will experience the most maritime conflict, vessel casualties and subsequently demand for salvage in 2026, although underlying issues are likely to spill over into other shipping areas.
He forecast resurging attacks on shipping in the Red Sea in 2026 if a ceasefire in Gaza does not continue over the next 12 months.
“The ceasefire is not secure and if conflict resumes, the Houthis may resume their attacks,” Dr Donald said. “Houthis now have the capability and have worked out how to sink vessels if they want to. They have the techniques, tactics and delivery systems, and can deploy these when they want to,” he explained.
“They have their own agenda to rule all of Yemen and are strengthening, but need funds. If Houthis want to get something from Saudi Arabia, they could use these techniques and delivery systems to target Saudi maritime assets. We could see a resumption of hostilities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden 2026.”
Piracy incidents in those seas from Somalia could exasperate the situation in these busy shipping areas. If this occurs, shipping may redivert trade around the Cape of Good Hope or away from Asia to Europe routes.Dr Donald also expects the Black Sea to be of high risk for shipping in 2026, with Ukraine increasing its attacks on tankers involved in Russian oil trade and on Russian terminals in the next 12 months.
“Ukraine has started targeting tankers in ballast in the Black Sea and Russian assets to turn off Russia’s oil trade and pressurise Russia into negotiations,” he said.
“They are not wanting to cause an oil slick but are sabotaging vessels linked to the shadow fleet. Attacks will intensify in 2026.”
These attacks have used uncrewed surface vessels targeting tanker hulls underwater.
Other Ukrainian-backed attacks may occur on tankers outside the Black Sea, as seen in November 2025 with incidents offshore Senegal and in the Mediterranean using limpet mines, said Dr Donald.
Russia may respond with attacks on vessels and Ukrainian dry bulk terminals using missiles in 2026, but there is less risk of fire or ships sinking as cargo such as grain absorbs explosives.“States can crack down on the operational capacity and freedom of the shadow fleet”
Risks to shipping in the Baltic differ, due to the Russia-Ukraine war and Europe’s response in 2026.
Dr Donald said European states, especially in the Baltic and Scandinavia, may support Ukraine in its drive to interrupt Russia’s oil exports by increasing inspections on suspected shadow fleet tankers.
“States can crack down on the operational capacity and freedom of the shadow fleet,” he said. “There is political will to crack down on these tankers through [multiple] inspections and interrupting traffic in the Baltic Sea.”
Russia may retaliate by targeting European subsea infrastructure and inspections.
“Maritime authorities may undermine the innocent passage of shipping and limit Russian vessels operating in the Baltic as it is thought some of these vessels were involved in cable damage,” said Dr Donald, who thinks incidents on European underwater cables will continue to occur in 2026.
Herminius partner Graham Thomas also highlighted the southern Caribbean and South China Sea as potential maritime conflict zones, and thus areas of salvage demand, in 2026.
“In southern Caribbean, tankers could be at risk of seizure by US naval forces and those carrying crude from Guyana [production] projects by the Venezuelan regime,” said Mr Thomas.
Around 25-30% of US naval forces are assigned to the area to protect ExxonMobil’s Guyana offshore assets and induce political pressure in Venezuela.
“The US Navy fleet is there to intimidate [president Nicolas] Maduro to leave or to be toppled, but it is not enough for a land invasion,” said Mr Thomas.
“In the South China Sea, China is likely to test its maritime dominance and position, so disrupting shipping is a possible risk.”
Dr Donald is also watching developments offshore the Falkland Islands where oil companies have just taken their final investment decision on the potentially huge Sea Lion oil development, which could include drilling and subsea facilities installations in 2026.
- US adds to Venezuelan sanctions with VLCC targets, does not rule out seizing more ships
- Black Sea tensions: Turkish-owned vessels damaged in Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports
- Ukrainian drones strike Russia-linked tanker and Russian-owned oil platform
- Black Sea war risk rates climb as third Russia-linked tanker attacked
- Explosions in Black Sea and Senegal hit three tankers linked to Russian trade
Dominick Donald and Graham Thomas presented their 2026 high risk threats to shipping at the Global Salvage and Wreck Forum in London on 11 December 2025.
